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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
4 – 2
Drenovets
Drenovets
10/25/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo58%
×Draw21%
Drenovets21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.02
Drenovets
1.12

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
79%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Drenovets
79%
Draw or Drenovets
42%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
35%
Drenovets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
33%
Drenovets 1+ goals
67%
Drenovets 2+ goals
31%
Drenovets 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
74%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.02

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
58%
level
21%
Drenovets scores more
21%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Dryanovo 4–2 Drenovets

Lokomotiv Dryanovo beat Drenovets 4-2 in Third League - Northwest on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.