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Drenovets vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
3 – 3
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
5/27/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 29Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Drenovets58%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
2.19
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.25

Drenovets creates 75% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
79%
Drenovets or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
42%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
36%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
89%
Drenovets 2+ goals
64%
Drenovets 3+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
73%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.19

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Drenovets scores more
58%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
21%

Drenovets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drenovets vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Drenovets and Lokomotiv Dryanovo drew 3-3 in Third League - Northwest on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.