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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
1 – 1
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
8/7/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 1Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo45%
×Draw24%
Botev Vratsa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.65
Botev Vratsa II
1.32

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 61 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
69%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Botev Vratsa II
76%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
23%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
23%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
73%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
38%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
60%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
45%
level
24%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
31%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1–1 Botev Vratsa II

Lokomotiv Dryanovo and Botev Vratsa II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.