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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
2 – 0
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
10/9/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 10Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo43%
×Draw25%
Akademik Svishtov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.58
Akademik Svishtov
1.33

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
68%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Akademik Svishtov
75%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
57%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
22%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
47%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
21%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
74%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
38%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
57%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
43%
level
25%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
32%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2–0 Akademik Svishtov

Lokomotiv Dryanovo beat Akademik Svishtov 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.