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Akademik Svishtov vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
1 – 1
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
11/12/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 15Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Akademik Svishtov67%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
2.20
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.90

Akademik Svishtov creates 144% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 81 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
86%
Akademik Svishtov or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
33%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
43%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
89%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
64%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
82%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
67%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
14%

Akademik Svishtov at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademik Svishtov vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Akademik Svishtov and Lokomotiv Dryanovo drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.