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Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs Albatroz — Cup 2020

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
FT
3 – 2
Albatroz
Albatroz
R. Putans 53'
D. Herman 44'
A. Sinelnikovs 18'
R. Oliveira 59'
M. Baskevics 51'
9/5/2020CupCup · 3rd RoundStadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils53%
×Draw20%
Albatroz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.27
Albatroz
1.60

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.33
Albatroz
1.20

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.00
Albatroz
1.20

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par
Albatroz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

Albatroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils or Albatroz
80%
Draw or Albatroz
47%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
32%
Albatroz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
39%
Albatroz 1+ goals
80%
Albatroz 2+ goals
47%
Albatroz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
66%
Albatroz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Albatroz away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.33 + Albatroz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Albatroz attack 1.20 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
53%
level
20%
Albatroz scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Sinelnikovs
44'
D. Herman
51'
M. Baskevics
53'
R. Putans
59'
R. Oliveira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3–2 Albatroz

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat Albatroz 3-2 in Cup on September 5, 2020.

Goals: A. Sinelnikovs (18'), D. Herman (44'), M. Baskevics (51'), R. Putans (53'), R. Oliveira (59').

The match was played at Stadions Celtnieks in Daugavpils.