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Lokeren vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Lokeren
Lokeren
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
Samuel Bastien 90'
Mehdi Carcela-González 79'
Paul-José Mpoku 65' (pen)
8/18/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lokeren33%
×Draw27%
Standard Liege40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokeren
1.17
Standard Liege
1.33

Standard Liege creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 152 away

creates per match

Lokeren
0.79
Standard Liege
1.19

allows per match

Lokeren
1.48
Standard Liege
1.55

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par
Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw
60%
Lokeren or Standard Liege
73%
Draw or Standard Liege
67%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+
13%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals
69%
Lokeren 2+ goals
33%
Lokeren 3+ goals
11%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
74%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
38%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)
45%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.79 + Standard Liege defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.17

Standard Liege attack 1.19 + Lokeren defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokeren scores more
33%
level
27%
Standard Liege scores more
40%

Standard Liege at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Lukáš Mareček
20'
Jose Francisco Cevallos
32'
Moussa Djenepo
61'
Mickael Tirpan
64'
Jakov Filipović
65'
Paul-José MpokuPenalty
68'
Đorđe Jovanović← Anton Saroka
68'
Marko Miric← Jose Francisco Cevallos
74'
Renaud Emond← Orlando Sá
79'
Mehdi Carcela-González
85'
Joher Khadim Rassoul← Mijat Maric
88'
William Balikwisha← Moussa Djenepo
90'
Samuel Bastien
90'
Samuel Bastien← Paul-José Mpoku

Shots

3Lokeren

Statistics

LokerenStandard
Overview
3Total Shots17
4Corners5
13Fouls8
Shots
3Total Shots17
1On Target9
2Off Target8
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls8
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
6Offsides0

Jupiler Pro League: Lokeren 0–3 Standard Liege

Standard Liege beat Lokeren 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 18, 2018.

Goals: Paul-José Mpoku (65' pen), Mehdi Carcela-González (79'), Samuel Bastien (90').

The match was played at Daknamstadion in Lokeren.