Lokeren 0–0 Royal Excel Mouscron: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Royal Excel Mouscron

9/22/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 8Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokeren39%

×Draw26%

Royal Excel Mouscron35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchRoyal Excel Mouscron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.30

Lokeren

1.38

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Lokeren

1.07

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.00

allows per match

Lokeren

1.60

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Royal Excel Mouscron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

65%

Lokeren or Royal Excel Mouscron

74%

Draw or Royal Excel Mouscron

61%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

18%

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

75%

Lokeren 2+ goals

40%

Lokeren 3+ goals

16%

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

73%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

37%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

52%

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Royal Excel Mouscron away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 1.07 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.00 + Lokeren defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokeren scores more

39%

level

26%

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

35%

Lokeren at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff