Lokeren 2–0 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AS Eupen

11/4/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 14Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokeren43%

×Draw25%

AS Eupen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.28

Lokeren

1.52

AS Eupen

1.28

Lokeren creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

1.07

creates per match

0.96

1.60

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Lokeren

1.07

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

Lokeren

1.60

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

68%

Lokeren or AS Eupen

75%

Draw or AS Eupen

57%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

21%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

78%

Lokeren 2+ goals

45%

Lokeren 3+ goals

20%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

72%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

37%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

57%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 1.07 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Lokeren defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokeren scores more

43%

level

25%

AS Eupen scores more

32%

Lokeren at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff