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Loja vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vélez
Vélez
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Loja49%
×Draw24%
Vélez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.65
Vélez
1.15

Loja creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Loja or draw
73%
Loja or Vélez
76%
Draw or Vélez
51%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
26%
Vélez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
81%
Loja 2+ goals
49%
Loja 3+ goals
23%
Vélez 1+ goals
68%
Vélez 2+ goals
32%
Vélez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
65%
Vélez (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vélez attack 1.19 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Loja scores more
49%
level
24%
Vélez scores more
27%

Loja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Loja 4–1 Vélez

Loja beat Vélez 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.