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Loja vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja42%
×Draw27%
Real Jaén31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.35
Real Jaén
1.13

Loja creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 93 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Loja or draw
69%
Loja or Real Jaén
73%
Draw or Real Jaén
58%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
19%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
74%
Loja 2+ goals
39%
Loja 3+ goals
15%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
68%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
31%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
57%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Loja scores more
42%
level
27%
Real Jaén scores more
31%

Loja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loja vs Real Jaén

Loja beat Real Jaén 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.