Loja vs Melilla CD: Preview & Prediction

Loja

CANC

22:00

Melilla CD

5/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 38Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja64%

×Draw20%

Melilla CD16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchMelilla CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.97

Loja

2.15

Melilla CD

0.97

Loja creates 122% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.68

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Melilla CD

0.82

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Melilla CD

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Melilla CD →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Loja or draw

84%

Loja or Melilla CD

80%

Draw or Melilla CD

36%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

40%

Melilla CD wins by 2+

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

88%

Loja 2+ goals

63%

Loja 3+ goals

36%

Melilla CD 1+ goals

62%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

25%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

80%

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Loja scores more

64%

level

20%

Melilla CD scores more

16%

Loja at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Loja host Melilla CD

May 16, 2020: Loja take on Melilla CD in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Loja host Melilla CD at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Loja vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Loja host Melilla CD