Loja 0–0 Mancha Real: Result & Stats

Loja

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mancha Real

2/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja49%

×Draw27%

Mancha Real24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchMancha Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

Loja

1.42

Mancha Real

0.92

Loja creates 54% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 79 away

1.68

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Mancha Real

0.73

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Mancha Real

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Mancha Real →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Loja or draw

76%

Loja or Mancha Real

73%

Draw or Mancha Real

51%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

24%

Mancha Real wins by 2+

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

76%

Loja 2+ goals

41%

Loja 3+ goals

17%

Mancha Real 1+ goals

60%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

23%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

67%

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Loja scores more

49%

level

27%

Mancha Real scores more

24%

Loja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff