Loja 0–3 Huétor Vega: Result & Stats

Loja

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Huétor Vega

1/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja48%

×Draw26%

Huétor Vega27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchHuétor Vega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.08

Loja

1.53

Huétor Vega

1.08

Loja creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 109 away

1.68

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Huétor Vega

1.04

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Huétor Vega

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Huétor Vega →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Loja or draw

73%

Loja or Huétor Vega

74%

Draw or Huétor Vega

52%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

24%

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

78%

Loja 2+ goals

45%

Loja 3+ goals

20%

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

66%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

29%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

64%

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Loja scores more

48%

level

26%

Huétor Vega scores more

27%

Loja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff