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Loja vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja48%
×Draw25%
Huétor Tájar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.56
Huétor Tájar
1.11

Loja creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 109 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Loja or draw
73%
Loja or Huétor Tájar
75%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
52%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
24%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
79%
Loja 2+ goals
46%
Loja 3+ goals
21%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
67%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
30%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
64%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Loja scores more
48%
level
25%
Huétor Tájar scores more
27%

Loja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Loja 5–0 Huétor Tájar

Loja beat Huétor Tájar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.