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Loja vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
CANC
00:00
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja47%
×Draw25%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.56
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.14

Loja creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Loja or draw
72%
Loja or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
75%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
53%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
24%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
79%
Loja 2+ goals
46%
Loja 3+ goals
21%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
68%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
32%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
63%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Loja scores more
47%
level
25%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
28%

Loja at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Loja face Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with Loja hosting Ciudad de Torredonjimeno. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Loja host Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.