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Loja vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja52%
×Draw24%
Atlético Porcuna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.69
Atlético Porcuna
1.05

Loja creates 61% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 94 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Loja or draw
76%
Loja or Atlético Porcuna
76%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
48%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
82%
Loja 2+ goals
50%
Loja 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Loja scores more
52%
level
24%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
24%

Loja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loja vs Atlético Porcuna

Loja beat Atlético Porcuna 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.