Loja 0–1 Almería II: Result & Stats

Loja

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almería II

2/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja41%

×Draw25%

Almería II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LojaExpected goals in this matchAlmería II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Loja

1.48

Almería II

1.31

Loja creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 75 away

1.68

creates per match

1.51

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Loja

1.68

Almería II

1.51

allows per match

Loja

1.11

Almería II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loja+0.00on par

Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Almería II →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Loja or draw

66%

Loja or Almería II

75%

Draw or Almería II

59%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+

20%

Almería II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals

77%

Loja 2+ goals

43%

Loja 3+ goals

19%

Almería II 1+ goals

73%

Almería II 2+ goals

38%

Almería II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)

55%

Almería II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Almería II attack 1.51 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Loja scores more

41%

level

25%

Almería II scores more

34%

Loja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff