Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Loja vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Loja
Loja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Loja58%
×Draw22%
Alhaurín20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loja
1.94
Alhaurín
1.04

Loja creates 87% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Loja
1.68
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Loja
1.11
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Loja+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loja ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Loja or draw
80%
Loja or Alhaurín
78%
Draw or Alhaurín
42%

Winning margin

Loja wins by 2+
34%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Loja 1+ goals
86%
Loja 2+ goals
58%
Loja 3+ goals
30%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
65%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
28%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Loja (draw refunded)
74%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loja at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loja attack 1.68 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Loja defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Loja scores more
58%
level
22%
Alhaurín scores more
20%

Loja at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Loja 1–0 Alhaurín

Loja beat Alhaurín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Medina Lauxa in Loja.