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Loiske vs TPV — Suomen Cup 2018

Loiske
Loiske
FT
0 – 14
TPV
TPV
3/27/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundValkeakosken Palloiluhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Loiske3%
×Draw5%
TPV91%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loiske
1.46
TPV
6.38

TPV creates 337% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Loiske
2.00
TPV
5.75

allows per match

Loiske
7.00
TPV
0.92

finishing

Loiske+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loiske ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–33%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–35%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–22%
2–33%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 43% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

Loiske or draw
9%
Loiske or TPV
95%
Draw or TPV
97%

Winning margin

Loiske wins by 2+
1%
TPV wins by 2+
81%

Team goals

Loiske 1+ goals
77%
Loiske 2+ goals
43%
Loiske 3+ goals
18%
TPV 1+ goals
100%
TPV 2+ goals
98%
TPV 3+ goals
91%

Draw no bet

Loiske (draw refunded)
4%
TPV (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loiske at home — creates 2.00, concedes 7.00 · 3 matches

TPV away — creates 5.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loiske attack 2.00 + TPV defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

TPV attack 5.75 + Loiske defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 6.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Loiske scores more
3%
level
5%
TPV scores more
91%

TPV at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Loiske 0 – 14 TPV

TPV beat Loiske 14-0 in Suomen Cup on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Valkeakosken Palloiluhalli in Valkeakoski.