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Loiske vs EuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Loiske
Loiske
FT
5 – 4
EuPa
EuPa
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundValkeakosken Palloiluhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Loiske12%
×Draw12%
EuPa76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loiske
2.50
EuPa
5.80

EuPa creates 132% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Loiske
2.00
EuPa
4.60

allows per match

Loiske
7.00
EuPa
3.00

finishing

Loiske+0.00on par
EuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loiske ↓

EuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–32%
4–43%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
95%5%4.5
87%13%

Double chance

Loiske or draw
24%
Loiske or EuPa
88%
Draw or EuPa
88%

Winning margin

Loiske wins by 2+
6%
EuPa wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Loiske 1+ goals
92%
Loiske 2+ goals
71%
Loiske 3+ goals
45%
EuPa 1+ goals
100%
EuPa 2+ goals
97%
EuPa 3+ goals
89%

Draw no bet

Loiske (draw refunded)
14%
EuPa (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
91%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loiske at home — creates 2.00, concedes 7.00 · 3 matches

EuPa away — creates 4.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loiske attack 2.00 + EuPa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

EuPa attack 4.60 + Loiske defence 7.00 → ÷2 → 5.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Loiske scores more
12%
level
12%
EuPa scores more
76%

EuPa at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "EuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Loiske 5 – 4 EuPa

Loiske beat EuPa 5-4 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Valkeakosken Palloiluhalli in Valkeakoski.