Logan Lightning 4–3 Mitchelton: Result & Stats

Logan Lightning

FT

4 – 3

Mitchelton

8/26/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 22Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Logan Lightning62%

×Draw19%

Mitchelton20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Logan LightningExpected goals in this matchMitchelton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.29

Logan Lightning

2.40

Mitchelton

1.29

Logan Lightning creates 86% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

2.12

creates per match

1.33

1.26

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Logan Lightning

2.12

Mitchelton

1.33

allows per match

Logan Lightning

1.26

Mitchelton

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Mitchelton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw

80%

Logan Lightning or Mitchelton

81%

Draw or Mitchelton

38%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

40%

Mitchelton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

91%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

69%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

42%

Mitchelton 1+ goals

72%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

37%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

76%

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 2.12 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Logan Lightning defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Logan Lightning scores more

62%

level

19%

Mitchelton scores more

20%

Logan Lightning at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff