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Loddefjord vs Os — 3. Division - Girone 1 2026

Loddefjord
Loddefjord
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Os
Os
D. Kvalvagnes 71' (pen), 56', 3'
T. Lunde 58'
4/6/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 1Alvøen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Loddefjord31%
×Draw19%
Os50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loddefjord
2.05
Os
2.58

Os creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Loddefjord
2.31
Os
2.31

allows per match

Loddefjord
2.85
Os
1.79

finishing

Loddefjord+0.00on par
Os+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loddefjord ↓

Os →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Loddefjord or draw
50%
Loddefjord or Os
81%
Draw or Os
69%

Winning margin

Loddefjord wins by 2+
16%
Os wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Loddefjord 1+ goals
87%
Loddefjord 2+ goals
61%
Loddefjord 3+ goals
33%
Os 1+ goals
92%
Os 2+ goals
72%
Os 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Loddefjord (draw refunded)
39%
Os (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loddefjord at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Os away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loddefjord attack 2.31 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.05

Os attack 2.31 + Loddefjord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Loddefjord scores more
31%
level
19%
Os scores more
50%

Os at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Kvalvagnes
56'
D. Kvalvagnes
58'
T. Lunde
71'
D. KvalvagnesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loddefjord vs Os

Os beat Loddefjord 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 6, 2024.

Goals: D. Kvalvagnes (3', 56', 71' pen), T. Lunde (58').

The match was played at Alvøen kunstgress in Godvik.