Loddefjord 4–4 Frøya: Result & Stats

Loddefjord

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Frøya

6/1/2024

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 9Alvøen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Loddefjord44%

×Draw19%

Frøya36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoddefjordExpected goals in this matchFrøya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

2.25

Loddefjord

2.48

Frøya

2.25

Loddefjord creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.31

creates per match

1.65

2.85

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Loddefjord

2.31

Frøya

1.65

allows per match

Loddefjord

2.85

Frøya

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loddefjord+0.00on par

Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loddefjord ↓

Frøya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Loddefjord or draw

64%

Loddefjord or Frøya

81%

Draw or Frøya

56%

Winning margin

Loddefjord wins by 2+

26%

Frøya wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Loddefjord 1+ goals

92%

Loddefjord 2+ goals

70%

Loddefjord 3+ goals

44%

Frøya 1+ goals

89%

Frøya 2+ goals

65%

Frøya 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Loddefjord (draw refunded)

55%

Frøya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loddefjord at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loddefjord attack 2.31 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.48

Frøya attack 1.65 + Loddefjord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Loddefjord scores more

44%

level

19%

Frøya scores more

36%

Loddefjord at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Loddefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff