Loddefjord 5–1 Årdal: Result & Stats

Loddefjord

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Årdal

8/24/2024

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 18Alvøen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Loddefjord56%

×Draw17%

Årdal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoddefjordExpected goals in this matchÅrdal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

2.20

Loddefjord

3.12

Årdal

2.20

Loddefjord creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.31

creates per match

1.54

2.85

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Loddefjord

2.31

Årdal

1.54

allows per match

Loddefjord

2.85

Årdal

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loddefjord+0.00on par

Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loddefjord ↓

Årdal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Loddefjord or draw

73%

Loddefjord or Årdal

83%

Draw or Årdal

44%

Winning margin

Loddefjord wins by 2+

37%

Årdal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Loddefjord 1+ goals

95%

Loddefjord 2+ goals

81%

Loddefjord 3+ goals

59%

Årdal 1+ goals

89%

Årdal 2+ goals

64%

Årdal 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Loddefjord (draw refunded)

67%

Årdal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loddefjord at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loddefjord attack 2.31 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.12

Årdal attack 1.54 + Loddefjord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Loddefjord scores more

56%

level

17%

Årdal scores more

27%

Loddefjord at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Loddefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff