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Lödde vs Orebro SK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Lödde
Lödde
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
2/28/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lödde15%
×Draw19%
Orebro SK66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lödde
0.91
Orebro SK
2.17

Orebro SK creates 138% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lödde
0.67
Orebro SK
1.85

allows per match

Lödde
2.50
Orebro SK
1.15

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lödde or draw
34%
Lödde or Orebro SK
81%
Draw or Orebro SK
85%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+
5%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals
60%
Lödde 2+ goals
23%
Lödde 3+ goals
6%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
89%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
64%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)
18%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 0.67 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Lödde defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lödde scores more
15%
level
19%
Orebro SK scores more
66%

Orebro SK at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Lödde 0–7 Orebro SK

Orebro SK beat Lödde 7-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Tolvans IP in Löddeköpinge.