Lödde 0–1 Karlskrona: Result & Stats

Lödde

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Karlskrona

4/7/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 2Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lödde28%

×Draw23%

Karlskrona49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LöddeExpected goals in this matchKarlskrona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.85

Lödde

1.35

Karlskrona

1.85

Karlskrona creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

1.31

creates per match

1.61

2.08

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lödde

1.31

Karlskrona

1.61

allows per match

Lödde

2.08

Karlskrona

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par

Karlskrona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

Karlskrona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lödde or draw

51%

Lödde or Karlskrona

77%

Draw or Karlskrona

72%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+

12%

Karlskrona wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals

74%

Lödde 2+ goals

39%

Lödde 3+ goals

15%

Karlskrona 1+ goals

84%

Karlskrona 2+ goals

55%

Karlskrona 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)

36%

Karlskrona (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Karlskrona away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 1.31 + Karlskrona defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Karlskrona attack 1.61 + Lödde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lödde scores more

28%

level

23%

Karlskrona scores more

49%

Karlskrona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karlskrona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff