Lödde 0–2 IFK Hässleholm: Result & Stats

Lödde

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Hässleholm

9/14/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 21Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lödde33%

×Draw23%

IFK Hässleholm44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LöddeExpected goals in this matchIFK Hässleholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.79

Lödde

1.54

IFK Hässleholm

1.79

IFK Hässleholm creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

1.31

creates per match

1.50

2.08

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Lödde

1.31

IFK Hässleholm

1.50

allows per match

Lödde

2.08

IFK Hässleholm

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

IFK Hässleholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lödde or draw

56%

Lödde or IFK Hässleholm

77%

Draw or IFK Hässleholm

67%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+

16%

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals

79%

Lödde 2+ goals

45%

Lödde 3+ goals

20%

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals

83%

IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals

53%

IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)

43%

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

IFK Hässleholm away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 1.31 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.50 + Lödde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lödde scores more

33%

level

23%

IFK Hässleholm scores more

44%

IFK Hässleholm at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Hässleholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff