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Lödde vs Hässleholms IF — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Lödde
Lödde
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
A. Crnalic 79'
A. Terzic 75'
J. Nilsson 60'
8/2/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 15Tolvans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lödde24%
×Draw22%
Hässleholms IF54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lödde
1.21
Hässleholms IF
1.95

Hässleholms IF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

creates per match

Lödde
1.31
Hässleholms IF
1.82

allows per match

Lödde
2.08
Hässleholms IF
1.10

finishing

Lödde+0.00on par
Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lödde ↓

Hässleholms IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lödde or draw
46%
Lödde or Hässleholms IF
78%
Draw or Hässleholms IF
76%

Winning margin

Lödde wins by 2+
9%
Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lödde 1+ goals
70%
Lödde 2+ goals
34%
Lödde 3+ goals
12%
Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
86%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
58%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lödde (draw refunded)
30%
Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lödde at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lödde attack 1.31 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hässleholms IF attack 1.82 + Lödde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lödde scores more
24%
level
22%
Hässleholms IF scores more
54%

Hässleholms IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
J. Nilsson
75'
A. Terzic
79'
A. Crnalic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lödde vs Hässleholms IF

Hässleholms IF beat Lödde 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 2, 2024.

Goals: J. Nilsson (60'), A. Terzic (75'), A. Crnalic (79').

The match was played at Tolvans IP in Löddeköpinge.