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Lochin vs Aral — Pro League A 2026

Lochin
Lochin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aral
Aral
5/1/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lochin52%
×Draw24%
Aral24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lochin
1.71
Aral
1.08

Lochin creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lochin
2.00
Aral
1.17

allows per match

Lochin
1.00
Aral
1.41

finishing

Lochin+0.00on par
Aral+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lochin ↓

Aral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lochin or draw
76%
Lochin or Aral
76%
Draw or Aral
48%

Winning margin

Lochin wins by 2+
28%
Aral wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lochin 1+ goals
82%
Lochin 2+ goals
51%
Lochin 3+ goals
24%
Aral 1+ goals
66%
Aral 2+ goals
29%
Aral 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lochin (draw refunded)
68%
Aral (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lochin at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Aral away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lochin attack 2.00 + Aral defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aral attack 1.17 + Lochin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lochin scores more
52%
level
24%
Aral scores more
24%

Lochin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lochin
Aral
S. Turakulov
Manager: S. Turakulov
Vadim Shodimatov
Manager: Vadim Shodimatov

Match Recap: Lochin vs Aral

Lochin and Aral drew 2-2 in Pro League A on May 1, 2026.