Lochee United 4–0 Hawick Royal Albert

Lochee United

4 – 0

Hawick Royal Albert

8/31/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundThomson Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lochee United76%

×Draw13%

Hawick Royal Albert10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lochee UnitedExpected goals in this matchHawick Royal Albert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.10

Lochee United

3.13

Hawick Royal Albert

1.10

Lochee United creates 185% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.60

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Lochee United

3.60

Hawick Royal Albert

1.00

allows per match

Lochee United

1.20

Hawick Royal Albert

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lochee United+0.00on par

Hawick Royal Albert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lochee United ↓

Hawick Royal Albert →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Lochee United or draw

90%

Lochee United or Hawick Royal Albert

87%

Draw or Hawick Royal Albert

24%

Winning margin

Lochee United wins by 2+

57%

Hawick Royal Albert wins by 2+

Team goals

Lochee United 1+ goals

95%

Lochee United 2+ goals

81%

Lochee United 3+ goals

59%

Hawick Royal Albert 1+ goals

67%

Hawick Royal Albert 2+ goals

30%

Hawick Royal Albert 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lochee United (draw refunded)

88%

Hawick Royal Albert (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lochee United at home — creates 3.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hawick Royal Albert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lochee United attack 3.60 + Hawick Royal Albert defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.13

Hawick Royal Albert attack 1.00 + Lochee United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lochee United scores more

76%

level

13%

Hawick Royal Albert scores more

10%

Lochee United at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lochee United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff