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Lochee United vs Burntisland Shipyard — FA Cup 2019

Lochee United
Lochee United
FT
7 – 0
Burntisland Shipyard
Burntisland Shipyard
8/10/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundThomson Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lochee United84%
×Draw9%
Burntisland Shipyard6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lochee United
3.92
Burntisland Shipyard
1.10

Lochee United creates 256% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lochee United
3.60
Burntisland Shipyard
1.00

allows per match

Lochee United
1.20
Burntisland Shipyard
4.25

finishing

Lochee United+0.00on par
Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lochee United ↓

Burntisland Shipyard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Lochee United or draw
94%
Lochee United or Burntisland Shipyard
91%
Draw or Burntisland Shipyard
16%

Winning margin

Lochee United wins by 2+
68%
Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lochee United 1+ goals
98%
Lochee United 2+ goals
89%
Lochee United 3+ goals
72%
Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals
67%
Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals
30%
Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lochee United (draw refunded)
93%
Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lochee United at home — creates 3.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Burntisland Shipyard away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lochee United attack 3.60 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.92

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.00 + Lochee United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lochee United scores more
84%
level
9%
Burntisland Shipyard scores more
6%

Lochee United at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lochee United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Lochee United 7–0 Burntisland Shipyard

Lochee United beat Burntisland Shipyard 7-0 in FA Cup on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Thomson Park in Dundee.