Lobos Upnfm 1–0 Juticalpa: Result & Stats

Lobos Upnfm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juticalpa

11/22/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Lobos Upnfm53%

×Draw24%

Juticalpa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobos UpnfmExpected goals in this matchJuticalpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.03

Lobos Upnfm

1.71

Juticalpa

1.03

Lobos Upnfm creates 66% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 58 away

1.34

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Lobos Upnfm

1.34

Juticalpa

0.86

allows per match

Lobos Upnfm

1.21

Juticalpa

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Upnfm ↓

Juticalpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lobos Upnfm or draw

77%

Lobos Upnfm or Juticalpa

76%

Draw or Juticalpa

47%

Winning margin

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+

29%

Juticalpa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals

82%

Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals

51%

Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals

24%

Juticalpa 1+ goals

64%

Juticalpa 2+ goals

28%

Juticalpa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)

70%

Juticalpa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Juticalpa attack 0.86 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lobos Upnfm scores more

53%

level

24%

Juticalpa scores more

23%

Lobos Upnfm at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lobos Upnfm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff