Lobos Upnfm vs CD Real Sociedad — Liga Nacional 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 102+ matches
Lobos Upnfm53%
CD Real Sociedad23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lobos Upnfm creates 64% more chances
Season form · 149 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lobos Upnfm ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches
CD Real Sociedad away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.97 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66
CD Real Sociedad attack 0.82 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Lobos Upnfm at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Lobos Upnfm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lobos Upnfm host CD Real Sociedad on Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 23:15. The match is part of the Liga Nacional 2018/2019 season.
Liga Nacional: Lobos Upnfm 2–1 CD Real Sociedad
Lobos Upnfm beat CD Real Sociedad 2-1 in Liga Nacional on November 23, 2024.
Goals: K. Peña (49'), Y. Dolmo (89'), M. Godoy (90+5').
The match was played at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse in Choluteca.