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Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia — Liga Nacional 2018

Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
2/7/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 4Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Lobos Upnfm31%
×Draw26%
CD Olimpia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobos Upnfm
1.16
CD Olimpia
1.42

CD Olimpia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 175 away

creates per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.34
CD Olimpia
1.64

allows per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.21
CD Olimpia
0.97

finishing

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par
CD Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Upnfm ↓

CD Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lobos Upnfm or draw
57%
Lobos Upnfm or CD Olimpia
74%
Draw or CD Olimpia
69%

Winning margin

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
12%
CD Olimpia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
69%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
32%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
11%
CD Olimpia 1+ goals
76%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
41%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
42%
CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches

CD Olimpia away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 175 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + CD Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

CD Olimpia attack 1.64 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lobos Upnfm scores more
31%
level
26%
CD Olimpia scores more
43%

CD Olimpia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Olimpia

CD Olimpia beat Lobos Upnfm 1-0 in Liga Nacional on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse in Choluteca.