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Lobos Upnfm vs CD Honduras — Liga Nacional 2018

Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CD Honduras
CD Honduras
3/11/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Lobos Upnfm53%
×Draw23%
CD Honduras24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobos Upnfm
1.78
CD Honduras
1.11

Lobos Upnfm creates 60% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.34
CD Honduras
1.01

allows per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.21
CD Honduras
2.22

finishing

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par
CD Honduras+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Upnfm ↓

CD Honduras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lobos Upnfm or draw
76%
Lobos Upnfm or CD Honduras
77%
Draw or CD Honduras
47%

Winning margin

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
29%
CD Honduras wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
83%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
53%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
26%
CD Honduras 1+ goals
67%
CD Honduras 2+ goals
30%
CD Honduras 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
69%
CD Honduras (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches

CD Honduras away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.22 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + CD Honduras defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

CD Honduras attack 1.01 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lobos Upnfm scores more
53%
level
23%
CD Honduras scores more
24%

Lobos Upnfm at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lobos Upnfm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Honduras

Lobos Upnfm beat CD Honduras 4-2 in Liga Nacional on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse in Choluteca.