Lobos Buap 2–0 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Lobos Buap

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toluca

11/25/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Universitario BUAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lobos Buap40%

×Draw25%

Toluca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobos BuapExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.35

Lobos Buap

1.45

Toluca

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 149 away

1.35

creates per match

1.23

1.47

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Lobos Buap

1.35

Toluca

1.23

allows per match

Lobos Buap

1.47

Toluca

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Buap ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lobos Buap or draw

65%

Lobos Buap or Toluca

75%

Draw or Toluca

60%

Winning margin

Lobos Buap wins by 2+

19%

Toluca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lobos Buap 1+ goals

77%

Lobos Buap 2+ goals

42%

Lobos Buap 3+ goals

18%

Toluca 1+ goals

74%

Toluca 2+ goals

39%

Toluca 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)

53%

Toluca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Buap at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Buap attack 1.35 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Toluca attack 1.23 + Lobos Buap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lobos Buap scores more

40%

level

25%

Toluca scores more

35%

Lobos Buap at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lobos Buap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff