Lobos Buap 3–1 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Lobos Buap

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Club Queretaro

2/17/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Universitario BUAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lobos Buap46%

×Draw25%

Club Queretaro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobos BuapExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Lobos Buap

1.56

Club Queretaro

1.19

Lobos Buap creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 137 away

1.35

creates per match

0.91

1.47

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Lobos Buap

1.35

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Lobos Buap

1.47

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Buap ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lobos Buap or draw

71%

Lobos Buap or Club Queretaro

75%

Draw or Club Queretaro

54%

Winning margin

Lobos Buap wins by 2+

23%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lobos Buap 1+ goals

79%

Lobos Buap 2+ goals

46%

Lobos Buap 3+ goals

21%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

70%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

33%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)

61%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Buap at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Buap attack 1.35 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Lobos Buap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lobos Buap scores more

46%

level

25%

Club Queretaro scores more

29%

Lobos Buap at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lobos Buap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff