Lobi Stars 3–2 Wikki Tourist: Result & Stats | NPFL

Lobi Stars

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Wikki Tourist

7/10/2022

NPFL · Round 37Aper Aku Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lobi Stars57%

×Draw27%

Wikki Tourist16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobi StarsExpected goals in this matchWikki Tourist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.64

Lobi Stars

1.47

Wikki Tourist

0.64

Lobi Stars creates 130% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 89 away

1.46

creates per match

0.52

0.75

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Lobi Stars

1.46

Wikki Tourist

0.52

allows per match

Lobi Stars

0.75

Wikki Tourist

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Wikki Tourist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw

84%

Lobi Stars or Wikki Tourist

73%

Draw or Wikki Tourist

43%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

30%

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

77%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

43%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

18%

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals

47%

Wikki Tourist 2+ goals

14%

Wikki Tourist 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

78%

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lobi Stars scores more

57%

level

27%

Wikki Tourist scores more

16%

Lobi Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff