Lobi Stars 3–0 Warri Wolves: Result & Stats | NPFL

Lobi Stars

FT

3 – 0

Warri Wolves

7/31/2016

NPFL · Round 29Aper Aku Stadium (Makurdi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Lobi Stars58%

×Draw25%

Warri Wolves17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobi StarsExpected goals in this matchWarri Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.71

Lobi Stars

1.56

Warri Wolves

0.71

Lobi Stars creates 120% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 55 away

1.47

creates per match

0.67

0.74

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lobi Stars

1.47

Warri Wolves

0.67

allows per match

Lobi Stars

0.74

Warri Wolves

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Warri Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw

83%

Lobi Stars or Warri Wolves

75%

Draw or Warri Wolves

42%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

31%

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

79%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

46%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

21%

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

51%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

16%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

77%

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.47 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Warri Wolves attack 0.67 + Lobi Stars defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lobi Stars scores more

58%

level

25%

Warri Wolves scores more

17%

Lobi Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff