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Lobi Stars vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
1/15/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 18Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Lobi Stars56%
×Draw26%
Kano Pillars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.50
Kano Pillars
0.70

Lobi Stars creates 114% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 121 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
83%
Lobi Stars or Kano Pillars
74%
Draw or Kano Pillars
44%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
29%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
78%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
44%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
19%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
50%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
16%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
76%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
56%
level
26%
Kano Pillars scores more
17%

Lobi Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Lobi Stars 1–1 Kano Pillars

Lobi Stars and Kano Pillars drew 1-1 in NPFL on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.