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Lobi Stars vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
CANC
15:00
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
5/31/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 38Aper Aku Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lobi Stars63%
×Draw23%
Jigawa Golden Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.71
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.65

Lobi Stars creates 163% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
86%
Lobi Stars or Jigawa Golden Stars
77%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
37%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
36%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
82%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
51%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
24%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
48%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
14%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
82%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
63%
level
23%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
14%

Lobi Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lobi Stars vs Jigawa Golden Stars — Match Preview

Lobi Stars face Jigawa Golden Stars on May 31, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lobi Stars host Jigawa Golden Stars at Aper Aku Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.