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Lobi Stars vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
10/16/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 7Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lobi Stars63%
×Draw24%
El Kanemi Warriors13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.65
El Kanemi Warriors
0.59

Lobi Stars creates 180% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 59 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
87%
Lobi Stars or El Kanemi Warriors
76%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
37%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
36%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
81%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
49%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
23%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
45%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
12%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
83%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
63%
level
24%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
13%

Lobi Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lobi Stars 2 – 2 El Kanemi Warriors

Lobi Stars and El Kanemi Warriors drew 2-2 in NPFL on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.