Lobi Stars 0–0 Bendel Insurance: Result & Stats

Lobi Stars

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bendel Insurance

4/21/2024

NPFL · Round 31Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lobi Stars51%

×Draw29%

Bendel Insurance20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobi StarsExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.68

Lobi Stars

1.29

Bendel Insurance

0.68

Lobi Stars creates 90% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 79 away

1.46

creates per match

0.61

0.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Lobi Stars

1.46

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Lobi Stars

0.75

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw

80%

Lobi Stars or Bendel Insurance

71%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

49%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

24%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

72%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

37%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

14%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

49%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

15%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

72%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lobi Stars scores more

51%

level

29%

Bendel Insurance scores more

20%

Lobi Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff