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LNZ Cherkasy vs Munkács — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
CANC
14:00
Munkács
Munkács
4/13/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 24Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy58%
×Draw24%
Munkács18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy
1.72
Munkács
0.83

LNZ Cherkasy creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy
2.11
Munkács
1.22

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy
0.44
Munkács
1.33

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy+0.00on par
Munkács+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Munkács →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw
82%
LNZ Cherkasy or Munkács
76%
Draw or Munkács
42%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
33%
Munkács wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
82%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
51%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
25%
Munkács 1+ goals
56%
Munkács 2+ goals
20%
Munkács 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
77%
Munkács (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Munkács away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 2.11 + Munkács defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Munkács attack 1.22 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more
58%
level
24%
Munkács scores more
18%

LNZ Cherkasy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: LNZ Cherkasy host Munkács

April 13, 2022: LNZ Cherkasy take on Munkács in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

LNZ Cherkasy host Munkács at Cherkasy Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.