LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

LNZ Cherkasy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

8/26/2023

Premier League · Round 5Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy41%

×Draw29%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ CherkasyExpected goals in this matchMetalist 1925 Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.98

LNZ Cherkasy

1.19

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.98

LNZ Cherkasy creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

1.12

0.83

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.57

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.12

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy

0.83

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.80

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw

70%

LNZ Cherkasy or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

71%

Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

59%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

18%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

70%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

33%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

12%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

62%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

26%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

57%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

41%

level

29%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

30%

LNZ Cherkasy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff