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LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty
Karpaty
M. Jashari 77'
H. Pasich 61'
A. Chachua 34'
8/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy40%
×Draw27%
Karpaty33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy
1.35
Karpaty
1.20

LNZ Cherkasy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy
1.41
Karpaty
1.52

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy
0.87
Karpaty
1.29

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.06on par
Karpaty-0.31scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw
67%
LNZ Cherkasy or Karpaty
73%
Draw or Karpaty
60%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
18%
Karpaty wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
74%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
39%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
15%
Karpaty 1+ goals
70%
Karpaty 2+ goals
34%
Karpaty 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
55%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 17 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.41 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Karpaty attack 1.52 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more
40%
level
27%
Karpaty scores more
33%

LNZ Cherkasy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
H. PasichLNZ CherkasyLNZ Cherkasy · M
8.3

Match Events

34'
A. Chachua
45+2'
Mollo Bessala
46'
F. Momoh← A. Avahimian
57'
V. Klymenko← Stênio
60'
Yevhenii Kucherenko
61'
H. Pasich↳ M. Jashari
65'
D. Ustymenko← Igor Neves
65'
A. Shakh← O. Ocheretko
70'
Olivier Thill
73'
V. Boiko← S. Nonikashvili
75'
O. Kuzyk← A. Chachua
75'
Y. Kostenko← Y. Pidlepenets
77'
M. Jashari↳ G. Bessala
83'
D. Oliinyk← O. Thill
88'
Muharrem Jashari
90+1'
V. Naumets← G. Bessala

Possession

40%LNZ

Shots

9LNZ

Pass accuracy

48%LNZ

Statistics

LNZKarpaty
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots10
0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.69
2Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots10
5On Target5
2Off Target1
2Blocked4
4Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
343Total Passes425
264Accurate Passes349
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Premier League: LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Karpaty

LNZ Cherkasy beat Karpaty 2-1 in Premier League on August 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Chachua (34'), H. Pasich (61'), M. Jashari (77').

Karpaty controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Cherkasy Arena in Cherkasy.