LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Inhulets: Result & Stats

LNZ Cherkasy

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inhulets

I. Putria 60', 35'

10/20/2024

Premier League · Round 10Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy48%

×Draw27%

Inhulets25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ CherkasyExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.93

LNZ Cherkasy

1.41

Inhulets

0.93

LNZ Cherkasy creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 53 away

1.07

creates per match

0.83

1.02

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.07

Inhulets

0.83

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.02

Inhulets

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw

75%

LNZ Cherkasy or Inhulets

73%

Draw or Inhulets

52%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

23%

Inhulets wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

76%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

41%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

17%

Inhulets 1+ goals

61%

Inhulets 2+ goals

24%

Inhulets 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

66%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

Inhulets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 + Inhulets defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Inhulets attack 0.83 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

48%

level

27%

Inhulets scores more

25%

LNZ Cherkasy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

I. Putria

LNZ Cherkasy · M

9.7

Match Events

15'

Shota NonikashviliMissed penalty

35'

I. Putria

45+1'

Ajdi Dajko

45'

Maksym MelnychukMissed penalty

45+1'

Roman Volokhatyi

60'

I. Putria

66'

Denis Sergeevich Rezepov

68'

Nazarii Muravskyi

69'

S. Kyslenko← A. Sitalo

69'

V. Sad← I. Losenko

69'

O. Pushkariov← D. Rezepov

71'

Valerii Sad

76'

V. Boiko← O. Khalaila

79'

Y. Kozyrenko← O. Piatov

81'

H. Pasich← D. Topalov

81'

A. Avahimian← M. Jashari

88'

B. Mohylnyi← V. Bilotserkovets

89'

Francis Momoh

90+1'

D. Oliinyk← O. Thill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LNZInhulets

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots9

1.97Expected Goals (xG)1.44

8Corners5

7Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots9

5On Target4

2Off Target3

1Blocked2

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

388Total Passes335

310Accurate Passes251

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1