LNZ Cherkasy U19 0–4 Kolos Kovalivka U19

LNZ Cherkasy U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Kolos Kovalivka U19

9/15/2024

U19 League · Round 6Stadion Geronimivka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy U1922%

×Draw23%

Kolos Kovalivka U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ Cherkasy U19Expected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.88

LNZ Cherkasy U19

1.12

Kolos Kovalivka U19

1.88

Kolos Kovalivka U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.02

creates per match

1.33

2.42

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19

1.02

Kolos Kovalivka U19

1.33

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19

2.42

Kolos Kovalivka U19

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Kolos Kovalivka U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy U19 ↓

Kolos Kovalivka U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or draw

45%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or Kolos Kovalivka U19

77%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka U19

78%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+

9%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals

67%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals

31%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals

10%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 1+ goals

85%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 2+ goals

56%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy U19 at home — creates 1.02, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

Kolos Kovalivka U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 1.02 + Kolos Kovalivka U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Kolos Kovalivka U19 attack 1.33 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more

22%

level

23%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 scores more

55%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff