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LNZ Cherkasy U19 vs Inhulets' U19 — U19 League 2023

LNZ Cherkasy U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inhulets' U19
Inhulets' U19
10/19/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 10Stadion Geronimivka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy U1949%
×Draw22%
Inhulets' U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.98
Inhulets' U19
1.48

LNZ Cherkasy U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.02
Inhulets' U19
0.53

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy U19
2.42
Inhulets' U19
2.93

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par
Inhulets' U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy U19 ↓

Inhulets' U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy U19 or draw
71%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 or Inhulets' U19
78%
Draw or Inhulets' U19
51%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+
28%
Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals
86%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals
59%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals
31%
Inhulets' U19 1+ goals
77%
Inhulets' U19 2+ goals
43%
Inhulets' U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy U19 at home — creates 1.02, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

Inhulets' U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 1.02 + Inhulets' U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Inhulets' U19 attack 0.53 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Inhulets' U19 scores more
29%

LNZ Cherkasy U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LNZ Cherkasy U19 vs Inhulets' U19

Inhulets' U19 beat LNZ Cherkasy U19 1-0 in U19 League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Geronimivka in Heronymivka.